Sociopolitical Destabilization Risks in Africa Monitoring

Conveners: Prof. Andrey V. Korotayev (Institute for African Studies, Moscow, Russia)
e-mail:, Leonid M. Issaev (National Research University – Higher School of
Economics, Moscow, Russia); e-mail:

The main purpose of the panel is systemic monitoring and analysis of social and political transformation of the countries of African continent, attempts to work out on this basis the forecasting mechanisms of their social and political development, as well as subsequent development of practical recommendations for overcoming or avoiding social and political instability. The study of socio-political instability in the context of current processes occurring in recent years in Africa (the “Arab Spring”, conflicts in northern Mali, Nigeria, etc.), as well as in the context of globalization allows the following:
- to identify certain laws that govern various aspects of development;
- to make reasonable forecasts on future trends in the development of various countries on the basis of such laws;
- to define the control parameters influencing which by certain public policies could significantly affect various aspects of development in the desired direction;
- to provide the basis for higher-level decision-making and for formation of the country, regional and global development policy.
Thus, the range of issues discussed in the section can be described as follows:
- monitoring of the main trends of development in Africa, as well as global trends affecting
African continent;
- identification of patterns of different development processes, as well as factors contributing to the destabilization of socio-political situation in African countries;
- identifying the risks of instability in Africa and the analysis of them based on the comparison of different indicators: economic, demographic, social, political, cultural, etc.
- developing of reasonable forecasts for future development trends and perspectives for maintaining social and political stability in North Africa after the events of the “Arab Spring”;
- study of the factors that could lead to destabilization of the political situation in the countries of sub-Saharan Africa;
- developing of a system for forecasting the dynamics of structural and demographic risks of destabilization.