The paper of the Director of the Institute of African Studies, RAS, special representative of the President of the Russian Federation for contacts with the leaders of African countries, A. Vassiliev, AFRICA: IS THERE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL?

  Five elements are necessary for the normal development of a human being. The first is water. Trees, animals or children die without water. The second is food. The third is health, because when water and food are available, but man falls sick, he may die. The fourth is education. When man has water, food and health, he needs education in order to be able to open up new horizons and new opportunities for himself. And finally, the fifth is peace, order and security. Without them not a single one of the basic necessities can be stable.
                                Anonymous Somali wise man

   In May 2002, that is, exactly six years ago, this author, in his paper “Africa and Challenges of the 21st Century” ventured to enumerate the main conditions for the revival of the continent. They are as follows:
   A sharp rise in the volume of the advanced countries’ aid to concrete aims on the principles of partnership;
   Settlement of the present armed conflicts and prevention of possible conflicts in the future;
   Better, more transparent, accountable and predictable governance and restricted corruption;
   Continuing and increasing investments in “human capital”, above all, education, health protection systems, especially in combating HIV/AIDS pandemic, malaria and tuberculosis;
   Greater involvment of women in economic and social life;
   Prevention of the outflow of capital and brain drain;
   Prevention of the laundering of criminal money and its transfer to banks in advanced countries;
   The inclusion of Africa in the information revolution.
   Naturally, Africa is so multiform and versatile that there can be no single formula for all countries. It is only natural that the above conditions are far from all, they only give a general outline of what is to be done and in what direction to work. Besides, these conditions are so closely intertwined that the order of their enumeration does not presuppose their hierarchy.
   I shall add a usual reservation: there is no Africa as a single whole, despite the existence and development of a number of continental African structures; individual countries differ so sharply in their civilizations, and the levels and rates of economic development that they seem to be situated on different continents. But we speak of a region where the majority of the poorest countries of our planet is concentrated, sometimes with a decaying economy. A definite vagueness of definitions is also due to the fact that sometimes the word “Africa” means the entire continent, sometimes the countries south of Sahara, and sometimes these very countries without the Republic of South Africa.
   Can we speak of the present day of Africa with optimism?
   Yes and No.
   At the very end of the 20th and in the early 21st century a certain dynamics of the strengthening of peace and security in Africa was observed. Quite recently, a territory larger than the entire Western Europe was in the grip of armed conflicts. Blood was spilled in Zaire (now the Democratic Republic of Congo), Angola, Mozambique, Rwanda, Burundi, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Somalia, Algeria and Southern Sudan. Hundreds of thousands, if not millions, have died as a result of military hostilities or from hunger, many millions have become refugees. There could be no talk of any progress or the liquidation of poverty in the conditions of constant conflicts. A conflict has now been raging in the western part of Sudan – Darfur, and in Somalia. These tragedies demand the most urgent solution. But their scope is incomparable to what was going on in Africa some 10–15 years ago. Kenya, too, was on the brink of a civil interethnic war quite recently, but the maturity and the feeling of responsibility of the Kenyan leaders, the efforts of the African Union and of the entire world community have stopped the bloodshed and helped find a compromise formula to resolve the conflict.
   The African Union has been playing an ever greater role in maintaining peace and security on the continent. There has been considerable progress with regard to the development of an African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), although the formation of the African Standby Force remains incomplete, and it will hardly be fully deployed by the year 2010, as planned. Despite this, the force is present in Darfur and Somalia. The decision in support of the African Standby Force has been adopted by the UN Security Council.
   A group of wise men has been formed in Africa in order to give recommendations for finding ways and means to resolve conflicts and tackle the problems of post-conflict construction. Certain steps have been taken to set up an early warning system against conflicts on the African continent. With the help of the G8 and other partners the African Union organizes conferences and sets up technical working groups to evolve strategies for the development of logistics, communications and civil components for the peace-keeping operations and post-conflict construction.
   It should be noted that the European Union and the United States render considerable financial aid to set up the African Standby Force. Russia takes part in practically all operations to maintain peace on the African continent and in training the necessary personnel for the corresponding force units of the African Union.
   Steps have been taken within the framework of the African Union and regional organizations to preclude the illegal trade in small arms and light weapons and to monitor their stocks. The point is that some new NATO member-states sell arms of Soviet make to African countries at dumping prices, which increases the possibility of armed conflicts and steps up the activity of illegal armed groupings. Certain African countries have adopted stricter measures against the illegal arms trade. Proper real, but not declarative, measures within the NATO framework, could contribute to these efforts. After all, these new NATO member-states could follow the example of the Republic of South Africa, which scrapped the redundant stocks of arms, despite the obvious economic losses.
   During the past five to six years Africa has demonstrated a sufficiently rapid economic progress. Although the target of the annual growth of the GDP at 7 percent set in order to reach the Millennium Development Goals has not been reached, the overall results are not bad. In all, the continent has registered the growth by 5.6 percent in 2005; 5.7 percent in 2006, and about 6 percent in 2007. The same figure is expected in 2008.
   In 2006 the GDP growth in 23 African countries was more than 5 percent, and in 2007 there were 30 such countries.
   In 2006 there were 12 African countries with the GDP growth at 3.5 percent, and in 2005, their number grew to 15.
   The African export of commodities and services increased by 15.2 percent in 2007, and import – by 13.2 percent.
    Beginning from 2001 economic growth in Africa exceeds the growth of the GDP in the OECD countries.
   This is caused by the growing requirements for African raw materials, the rising prices of hydrocarbons, metals and minerals, the writing-off of debts, the inflow of capital, especially within the framework of the Official Development Aid, as well as direct foreign investments. Certain results have been achieved in the implementation of reforms in some African countries. In any case, there have been no cases of famine in Africa in the past two or three years.
   A more efficient macroeconomic management, the introduction of better governance and greater security were also among the factors which contributed to the economic successes of Africa.
   At the same time, the medium- and long-term prospects of economic growth remain vague. A definite slowing down of the growth of the world economy may lead to a reduction of export from Africa. Any drop in the prices of African raw materials will tell on the situation of the continent. The growing price of oil, which is advantageous for the oil-producing countries, is pernicious for the oil-importing countries. The situation on the world financial and currency markets is unpredictable. If the present financial crisis turns into a recession in the main centres of the world economy – the United States, the European Union and Japan, it will be felt in China, and, to a still greater extent, in Africa.
   The productivity of agriculture is growing, but mainly due to extensive methods. So far, the African agricultural producers have been unable to adequately feed their own population. 42 African countries remain net importers of food, and with the growing world prices of food products, the impact on the poorest sections of the population may prove too heavy and lead to social upheavals.
   Climate changes are having an ever greater negative effect on the situation in Africa, but we shall dwell on this in details later on.
   Despite the relatively high rates of economic growth, poverty in Africa has not diminished. One of the main Millennium Development Goals is to reduce the number of the poor and the malnourished by 50 percent, and it will not be reached by 2015. The real number of those living in abject poverty (on less than a dollar per day) has practically not changed during the past 15 years, it has even increased. The absolute number of the poor in Africa has grown since 1990 up to now by 90 million. The income of the poorest sections of the population has diminished, and of the richest ones has grown, which has only enhanced inequality in the distribution of incomes. The growth of the GDP was not accompanied with the creation of additional jobs, and the unemployment level remained quite high.
   Economic activity is moving from agriculture to the capital-intensive sectors, such as the extraction of mineral raw materials and oil. The private sector has not shown enough activity in creating new jobs so far, although there are good exceptions.
   There is a consensus among Africans and experts on African development on the following issue: the simple growth of the GDP is not enough for the reduction of poverty. Some people maintain that an accelerated economic growth is the main lever for reducing poverty. Others claim that the reduction of poverty calls for the combination of economic growth and social policy in favour of the poor, the so-called pro-poor development. The latter view presupposes that economic growth should decrease social inequality in favour of the poorest sections of the population and give them more opportunities for access to economic activity.
   Economic growth in Africa should be concentrated, above all, in agriculture, employing almost 70 percent of the indigenous population, and should be accompanied with an increase in its productivity. Naturally, the Africans expect growing investments, including foreign ones, in agriculture.
   We should note that in the African countries with the growing agricultural production, the number of the absolutely poor diminishes. In 2003, at the Maputu summit the African leaders mapped out measures to increase agricultural production by 6 percent annually. They called for channeling 10 percent of all budget expenditures of the African countries to agriculture and the development of rural areas. By now very few African countries have come close to this figure. The growth of agricultural production does take place, but mostly due to extensive methods.
   The African village, just as the entire economy, cannot develop without the corresponding infrastructure – roads, bridges, telecommunications, storehouses, ports, railways, and the sources of energy. And this is precisely what Africa is short of. And it is the poorest sections of the population that bear the brunt of the absence of transport, energy and water. At present, the expenditures on the infrastructure in Africa amount to about 10 billion dollars a year, including local and foreign capital, and state and private investments. But the necessary figure is 17 to 22 billion. The deficit comprises some 7 to 12 billion at present. It is not accidental that the NEPAD programme considers the development of the infrastructure to be a priority task.
   Many people in Africa connect their future with the development of information and communication technologies (ICT). During the past decade new opportunities have opened for Africa’s participation in the global economy based on information networks. This had an impact on all sectors of society. African countries have evolved a general view on the problem and a development strategy of society, which should take into account the possibilities of informatics, among other things. They recognize ICT not only as an instrument of economic innovations, but also as an impetus to socio-economic development, and access to information and knowledge as a necessary condition for reducing poverty and developing health service and education. The President of the Republic of Rwanda, Paul Kagame, said in May 2006: “We have said, and now repeat, that it is impossible to overestimate the role of information and telecommunication technologies in national, regional and continental development, especially, in creating wealth, new jobs and reducing poverty. The existing “digital divide” demands common measures, which would ensure the use by Africans of information and communication technologies”.
   There are opportunities for the successful activity of private business in Africa, including in the ICT sphere, despite certain political and social risks. A case in point is the Afro-Arab entrepreneur Mo Ibrahim. In 1998 he decided that there was a market for mobile-phone business in Africa. But not a single giant corporation dared engage in business in Africa, because of political risks. Mo Ibrahim set up the “Celtel” Company, which now has more than 20 million subscribers in 15 countries. “Celtel” hires 8,000 employees and indirectly provides work to another 170,000 people all over Africa. In 2005, Mo Ibrahim sold the company for 3.4 billion dollars to a Kuwaiti operator. Mr. Ibrahim believes that the continent is open for private business, rather than charity. In his view, “the way forward for Africa is investment”.
   Mo Ibrahim began virtually from scratch. Born in Sudan and raised and educated in Egypt, he started off as an engineer at Sudan’s national phone company. After further study in Britain he went on to become technical director at Cellnet, the wireless arm of the “British Telecom”. He left in 1998 to set up an engineering consultancy and designed mobile networks. In 2000 he sold it for 900 million dollars to “Marconi” Co. By that time he already developed “Celtel” and needed additional money.
   Mr. Ibrahim takes the future of Africa close to heart. Recently he set up a foundation for promoting good governance in Africa. It plans to award an annual prize of 5 million dollars to retired African leaders who ruled well and then stand down, rather than trying to cling to power. The foundation works in cooperation with Harvard University to establish a scoring system with which to assess potential candidates. The prize committee is chaired by Kofi Annan, former Secretary General of the United Nations. The first winner of the prize in 2007 was the former president of Mozambique, Joaquim Chissano. His prize will be given annually in parts of 0.5 million each for a period of 10 years. Then he will receive a pension for life amounting to 200,000 dollars annually.
   More than 30 years ago Mr. Ibrahim had to leave Africa for Europe in search of education and professional success. He hopes that fostering indigenous African companies will help ensure that tomorrow’s engineers and entrepreneurs can find their opportunities closer to home.
   Earlier the African continent was in the grip of military coups and military dictatorships, whereas now a substantial broadening of democratic principles can be observed. After the adoption of the NEPAD programme in 2001 and right up to the end of 2007, there were more than 45 election campaigns in African countries on a multiparty basis. Despite all and sundry recriminations (sometimes quite just) for the lack of election processes in such giant African countries as Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo or Ethiopia, the democratization process with African specificities is on an upsurge. Executive power becomes more efficient and the first features of a civil society emerge. Such document as the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (January 2007) was adopted. The international community supports these processes not only financially, morally or personnelwise. For instance, the armed forces of the European Union were temporarily deployed in support of the UN armed forces during the election campaign in the Democratic Republic of Congo in order to prevent the flare-up of violence.
   Having adopted the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights, the African states have evolved the legal framework for the protection of the rights of man. The first eleven judges have been appointed to the African Court on Human and Peoples’ Rights. Additionally, the empowerment of women, a primary objective for the AU and NEPAD, was enshrined in the Protocol on the Rights of Women in Africa in November 2005 in order to guarantee gender equality in social and economic aspects. Most African countries have signed and ratified the Protocol. The desire to ensure the rights and equality of women in access to education and health service, in their economic and political activity is one of the proclaimed aims of the African countries.
   During the past several years of this century Africa has made considerable strides forward in establishing good governance. The pan-African and regional institutions have played an important role on this path. It should be noted that the western countries regard their own system of governance as the proper one, presenting it in an idealized form. And African countries, while duly recognizing the western concepts of good governance and democracy, emphasize African specificity, the African traditions of collectivism, and the specific features of African mentality.
   In 2002 the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) was set up as a genuine African participatory self-monitoring mechanism for political, economic and governance standards. It embodied the spirit of the reforms which covered the African continent and at the same time it was an impetus to these reforms. By the end of 2007 there were 27 countries which officially expressed readiness to take part in this process of mutual monitoring. Five countries – Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda, the Republic of South Africa and Algeria completed monitoring and presented corresponding reports. The process continues in another 13 countries. The very form of such self-monitoring of Africans has found support on the part of the international community, including the G8.
   The APRM made it possible for the countries taking part in it to better assess their realities and learn more about their strong and weak aspects. This mechanism allowed them to reveal the institutional, managerial, economic, organizational and other drawbacks, which obstruct the development and modernization of African societies. It enabled them to accumulate important experience of genuinely African practice, which enriches the states of the continent with new knowledge and methods of governance.
   The emergence of the AC/NEPAD as the structures and programmes created by Africans themselves with a view to socio-economically and politically transforming the continent was welcomed by the international community. The G8 decided to integrate the discussion of African problems in its annual summits and conduct a special dialogue with African leaders. This dialogue was broadened and institutionalized in November 2003, when, following the G8 meeting in Evian the Africa Partnership Forum was organized. It included the African countries –participants in the NEPAD programme, representatives of the African Union, as well as representatives of the G8 and the main regional and multilateral partners of Africa. The Forum sessions have become the important meetings for checking the fulfillment of the commitments adopted by both African governments and their donor-partners. At the same time the Forum has created a platform for a dialogue to discuss the socio-economic challenges to Africa and find ways and means to answer them by both the Africans themselves and the international community.
   In 2005 the G8 at its summit at Gleneagles adopted a commitment to increase considerably the financial contribution to the economic upsurge of the developing countries. The G8 was joined by other advanced countries. It was decided that the official development aid on the part of the G8 and other donors to all developing countries would increase by 50 billion dollars in 2010, as against 2004. Half of this increase will be channeled to Africa. The G8 members wished to comply with their obligations. Since the time of the Gleneagles summit the official development aid to the developing countries increased from 79 billion in 2004 to 103.9 dollars in 2006. Official development aid to Subsaharian Africa rose to 28 billion dollars in 2006.
   The writing-off of debts has been an important contribution to development, inasmuch as it considerably diminished their annual service. This enabled many African countries to invest more money in social programmes to reduce poverty. The initiative of writing-off debts of the poorest countries with big liabilities and arrears put forward at the G8 meeting in Cologne in 1999 was reaffirmed at the summit in Gleneagles in 2005. By the end of 2007 19 African countries had their debts written-off completely, and 14 more states will be able to achieve this on certain conditions. In this connection it should be mentioned that Russia has written-off African countries’ debts, apart from Libya, to a sum of about 16 billion dollars.
   Direct foreign investments in Africa also grow, along with official development aid. Yet, at present the continent accounts for only 4 percent of all world foreign investments. They are distributed very unevenly. A greater part of them goes to North Africa and the Republic of South Africa, as well as several big oil producers in Africa south of the Sahara.
   Africa follows the activities of the donor-countries and notes that the commitment of the advanced countries of the West on channeling 0.7 percent of their gross domestic product (the United States has not assumed this obligation) has not been fulfilled by most donor-countries, and, apparently, will not be fulfilled in the nearest future. The Africans hope to get access to grants and loans at low interest in order to break the vicious circle of their dependence on debts. Simultaneously, they insist not only on the complete writing-off of debts from the least developed countries with big indebtedness, but also on similar measures with regard to the countries of a medium development level, as Africans see it.
   Corruption , one of the main African woes, remains a major concern, and the struggle against it is a top priority. The majority of African states have given priority to improving transparency and public financial management over the last few years. More than 40 African states have ratified the UN Convention Against Corruption, which went into force in December 2005. Earlier still, in 2003, the African Union adopted its own Convention on Corruption. Africa has thus put into place the provisions necessary for the prevention and criminalization of corrupt activities. However, the implementation of these standards is a continuous and significant challenge throughout Africa, and it is not alone in having to do this.
   Africans note equal responsibilities of the corrupters and corrupted. They do not point their finger to concrete transnational corporations which widely practice bribery, but everybody understands who’s who and what’s what.
   “There are still shortcomings in the struggle against corrupters in the advanced countries, which obstructs the struggle against corrupt elements and corruption in African countries and does not allow Africa to get rid of the image of a corrupt continent,” said the Algerian deputy minister (minister-d?l?gu?) on the affairs of Maghreb and African countries, A. Messahel, at the Africa Partnership Forum held in Algeria in November 2007.
   The illegal export of capital continues to undermine Africans’ efforts aimed at economic development, the struggle against poverty and the construction of law-abiding states. In order to trace, confiscate and transfer the illegally acquired assets Switzerland has recently set up the International Centre for returning capital. This Centre provides consultations to African countries, international organizations and western countries, which need such knowledge and experience. The illegal incomes of a part of the African elite are channeled to financial institutions of advanced and industrialized countries which should bear responsibility for returning assets to their legal owners. Thanks to the activity of the Swiss bank and judicial systems considerable sums have been repatriated to Nigeria (about 0.5 billion dollars), and some countries of Asia and Latin America. Unfortunately, this is but a small part of the stolen money, and other countries are not in a hurry to follow the example of Switzerland, although they officially support the UN Convention Against Corruption, which they have signed and ratified themselves.
   Until recently, the outflow of capital from Africa, both through official channels (service and repayment of credits) and through “black” or “grey” schemes, has exceeded the inflow of all types of aid and investments to the continent. This has been admitted, though in bypassing, in a report of G8 Africa personal representatives to the heads of state and government on the eve of the meeting in Heiligendamm in 2007.
   During the past years the members of the “BRIC” – Brazil, Russia, India and China – have broadened their cooperation with Africa. They increase trade turnover with countries of the continent and become active investors, issue loans and take part in development programmes. China has now become the third biggest investor in Africa and third trade partner of the continent. There are definite contradictions between Western countries, including Japan, on the one hand, and China, on the other, in their approach to cooperation with Africa. Western countries insist that all parties in their economic relations with Africa use the principles of trade, partnership, development, business standards, ecology, the principles of peace, democracy and human rights declared and adopted by the West. But neither China nor African countries have revealed any particular interest in acting in coordination with western countries and Japan according to their standards. This problem has not been solved so far.
   Serious rivalry for Africa has been going on. This explains the greater frequency of summit meetings between the leaders of African countries and China and the European Union in 2006–2007. This year a summit meeting between India and Africa has already taken place, and soon a meeting between Japan and Africa (the 4th Tokyo International Conference on African Development) will be held.
   The visits of President V. Putin to a number of African countries – Egypt, the Republic of South Africa, Morocco, Algeria and Libya – have demonstrated Russia’s growing interest in Africa. Our country needs some raw materials mined in Africa and its agricultural products and wishes to develop trade relations with the countries of the African continent.
   The destinies of the African peoples and the whole of mankind are interconnected. Solution to African problems is not a matter of altruism of the advanced countries, but concern of their own future. The global threat to life on our planet, namely, the warming of the Earth’s climate, cannot be averted without cooperation between the peoples of all continents.
   The African continent is responsible for only 3.5–4 percent of all discharges of greenhouse gases, whereas it is precisely the African forests, along with the Brazilian and Russian ones, that weaken the negative effect of these gases on the environment. But the area under these forests all over the world is diminishing with catastrophic speed. The consequences of climate changes can prove the most tragic for Africa.
   To see how rapidly the climate changes in Africa it will be enough to look at its highest mountain – Kilimanjaro. Since the beginning of scientific observations in 1912 its ice cover has diminished by 82 percent. Another 15 years, and the glaciers on the mountain will disappear. Is it necessary to talk of the consequences of this disaster for water supply in the area?
   In the 20th century the average temperature in Africa rose by 0.7 degree, but temperature records fall on the end of the century. Scientists predict that by 2100 temperature in Africa on the surface of the continent my rise by 2 to 6 degrees Celsius. In its latest report the International Commission on climate changes admits that warming on the African continent will, perhaps, exceed the average global level, and in dry subtropical regions it will be higher than in humid tropical areas. On a greater part of the African continent precipitation will decrease.
   Almost half of all African countries, or about 600 million people, will suffer from the shortage of water by 2025. This will be caused by the growth of the population, greater water consumption, reduced precipitation, and increased evaporation of reservoirs due to rising temperatures. We do not speak of such important question as the access of Africans to clean water.
   However, in the equatorial regions precipitation will increase, which will result in severe floods. More frequent floods, droughts and humanitarian catastrophes, decreasing agricultural production, weaker food security, spreading diseases, the greater risk of conflicts caused by the shortage of the land and water resources – already plague many regions of Africa.
   It is clear now that the conflict in Darfur has partly been caused by climate changes in the Sahel zone during the past 30 years and the degradation of the environment. The onslaught of desert in northern Darfur pushes the nomads southward and provokes their clashes with the local population.
   Africa has the least possibilities for adaptation to climate changes. 70 percent of the Africans live off agriculture. It provides 40 percent of African export, and crop productivity per hectare of land in many countries of the continent is falling.
   Adaptation measures include readiness to take the risks of floods and droughts, the improved monitoring of weather, the use of drought-resistant seeds, an increase in the volume of reservoirs, and the development of industries with smaller discharges of greenhouse gases. Adaptation to climate changes has now been recognized the absolute necessity for the continent. But, according to estimates, Africa’s adaptation to climate changes will cost from 5 to 10 percent of the GDP. If it is not given financial and technical assistance from the international community within the framework of partnership, all its plans to boost the economy, secure stable development, reduce poverty and combat diseases will be threatened with failure.
   The commitment of the international community, above all of the industrial countries, to reduce the discharges of greenhouse gases should be the key one for minimizing the negative consequences of climate changes on the planet, including Africa.
   In 1994 a UN framework convention on climate changes was adopted. It went into force in 2005 when Russia ratified it, but prior to it, regular conferences were held discussing environmental problems. By now the convention has been ratified by almost all states of the world – 192 countries. Meetings of those who signed it take place every year. In 1997, at the third such conference in Japan, the so-called Kyoto Protocol was signed. Under it, the participants of the meeting pledged to reduce the total volume of the discharges of greenhouse gases by at least five percent during the period between 2008 and 2012, as compared with 1990. This pledge is not being fulfilled, although the G8 members, except the United States, have ratified the Kyoto Protocol.
   The problem lies in the fact that expenditures on reducing the discharges of greenhouse gases diminish the competitiveness of industries. This is why the United States refuses to follow the example of the European Union where these measures have become laws in many countries. The European Union intends to reduce the discharge of greenhouse gases by 20 percent by 2020 and increase to 20 percent the share of the renewable sources of energy in its consumption. More and more greenhouse gases are discharged in China, where power production is mainly based on coal.
   As to Africa, almost all countries of the continent have ratified the Kyoto Protocol. At the 8th summit of the African Union in Addis Ababa in January 2007, they pledged to take part in measures aimed at preventing climate changes and include them in the national development strategies.
   The task to reduce greenhouse gas discharges into the atmosphere runs counter to the measures aimed at stopping the deindustrialization of the continent, the development of industries, economic upsurge and the decrease of poverty. All this requires the development of power production. The most advanced country of the continent – the Republic of South of Africa – produces almost half of all electric energy and accounts for about half of all discharges of greenhouse gases. This is due to coal combustion. The RSA holds 11th place in the world in greenhouse gas discharges. This African economic giant is facing the great shortage of electric energy. Second place in Subsaharian Africa, as far as atmospheric pollution is concerned, is held by Nigeria, where enormous amounts of oil-well gas are burned by torches.
   Africa is rich in energy resources, but they are distributed very unevenly. The generation of electricity is even more uneven.
   Up to now, 75 percent of the population, or 550 million people, living in Subsaharian Africa (except the RSA) have no access to electricity. At best, this figure may become somewhat lower by 2015. Three-quarters of their needs for energy the inhabitants of Subsaharian Africa (without the RSA) satisfy with the help of the biomass, that is, firewood.
   The development of energy production is a crucial question for stable economic growth, the diversification of the economy, the reduction of poverty and human development. In the past two years alone, energy crises have struck 28 African countries.
   Africa has an enormous hydropower potential which is now used by only 4 to 7 percent. Its development requires huge capital investments. Foreign aid to the development of power production grows swiftly enough, but it is inadequate so far. The Great Inga project is in the offing. It will be the world’s biggest hydropower complex, but it requires from 50 to 80 billion US dollars of investments, and so far nobody has assumed the commitment to finance this giant construction project.
   Speaking of Africa’s misfortunes, one should mention the problem of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, and also the spreading of malaria and tuberculosis. Besides, there are seats of polio in Africa, too. The HIV/AIDS pandemic threatens to thwart the efforts of the African states and the international community aimed at economic development and the reduction and abolition of poverty. In 2005, the G8 adopted the decision to set up a special fund to provide universal access of all HIV/AIDS positives to medical treatment and ensure preventive measures. However, until now two-thirds of the Africans contaminated with HIV do not have access to therapeutic treatment. There are more women than men infected with HIV/AIDS (59 percent). There is a shortage of medical personnel, resources, equipment and medicines for treatment, as well as proper information about the prevention and treatment of this scourge.
   Each year malaria kills about one million Africans, mainly children up to five. At present, due to greater precipitation in Equatorial Africa, the zone of malaria becomes wider. The G8 has renewed its commitments to fight malaria, as well as HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At its meeting in St. Petersburg in 2006, the G8 pledged to work with African countries to stem the spreading of malaria and reduce mortality caused by this disease by 50 percent by 2010. However, there is no firm confidence of the successful implementation of this task. The incidence and mortality rate of TB are on an increase. The problem is aggravated by the fact that TB and malaria go hand in hand with HIV/AIDS. Besides, the TB virus mutates and is difficult to cope with by medicines and treatment. Additional investments are needed to develop new medicines for the purpose. Corresponding decisions were adopted at the St. Petersburg summit.
   It is clear that additional financing is needed to combat African diseases in order to come closer to the Millennium Development Goals. This should proceed parallel with the improvement of the national health protection systems. Yet, many African doctors and nurses do not see their future prospects in their native lands and leave en mass for advanced countries, thus the health service system of the continent deteriorates.
   This paper does not aim at covering all aspects of the situation in Africa to assess the elements of optimism and pessimism. Many essential problems remained untouched here – a detailed analysis of foreign trade, the effectiveness of aid and capital investments, the prospects of education and scientific research, the conservation of biodiversity, the problems of migration, the preservation of African identity, to mention but a few. I shall repeat: the African problems are so closely intertwined that an attempt to isolate at least one of them without organic connections with others would be counterproductive and could be nothing more than a scholastic exercise.
   “Africa needs to have an opportunity to play a role in global politics worthy of it,” as it was said in the G8 Africa Personal Representatives’ Joint Progress Report to the heads of state and government at the G8 summit in Heiligendamm. “We need a strong, democratic Africa in order to be able to answer the global challenges of today together, especially to ensure peace and security, combat poverty and climate changes…The African reforms will be successful, provided they are implemented by Africans themselves at the continental, regional and national levels. The African ideas and principles laid down in the declarations and resolutions of the African Union need to be integrated in the political course of the African Union member-countries”.
   I’d like to conclude the paper submitted to you here on an optimistic note, because the situation on the continent as a whole is now better than it was 6, 8 or 15 years ago. Martin Luther King once said the words which became the motto of the Afro-Americans’ movement for equality in the United States: “I have a dream”. I’d like to repeat his words in a different context. I have seen the construction of the High Aswan Dam in Egypt and also how the Nile hydropower units, the product of Soviet-Egyptian cooperation, began to work. I have a dream to visit the construction site of the Great Inga project, a dream to see it completed. And I have no doubt that it will take place sooner or later.